Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Earlier-Onset Adult Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and First-Year Renal Diseases in a Taiwanese Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a predictive model using polygenic risk score (PRS) to forecast renal outcomes for adult systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a Taiwanese population. METHODS: Patients with SLE (n=2782) and matched non-SLE controls (n=11 128) were genotyped using Genome-Wide TWB 2.0 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. PRS models (C+T, LDpred2, Lassosum, PRSice-2, PRS-continuous shrinkage (CS)) were constructed for predicting SLE susceptibility. Logistic regression was assessed for C+T-based PRS association with renal involvement in patients with SLE. RESULTS: In the training set, C+T-based SLE-PRS, only incorporating 27 SNPs, outperformed other models with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.629, surpassing Lassosum (AUC=0.621), PRSice-2 (AUC=0.615), LDpred2 (AUC=0.609) and PRS-CS (AUC=0.602). Additionally, C+T-based SLE-PRS demonstrated consistent predictive capacity in the testing set (AUC=0.620). Individuals in the highest quartile exhibited earlier SLE onset (39.06 vs 44.22 years, p<0.01), higher Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index scores (3.00 vs 2.37, p=0.04), elevated risks of renal involvement within the first year of SLE diagnosis, including WHO class III-IV lupus nephritis (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.80, p<0.01), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m2 (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.89, p<0.01) and urine protein-to-creatinine ratio >150 mg/day (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.89, p<0.01), along with increased seropositivity risks, compared with those in the lowest quartile. Furthermore, among patients with SLE with onset before 50 years, the highest PRS quartile was significantly associated with more serious renal diseases within the first year of SLE diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: PRS of SLE is associated with earlier onset, renal involvement within the first year of SLE diagnosis and seropositivity in Taiwanese patients. Integrating PRS with clinical decision-making may enhance lupus nephritis screening and early treatment to improve renal outcomes in patients with SLE.

Long-term Risks of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Across Steatotic Liver Disease Subtypes.

INTRODUCTION: The prospective study aimed to investigate the long-term associated risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) across various subtypes of steatotic liver disease (SLD). METHODS: We enrolled 332,175 adults who participated in a health screening program between 1997 and 2013. Participants were categorized into various subtypes, including metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), MASLD with excessive alcohol consumption (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), based on ultrasonography findings, alcohol consumption patterns, and cardiometabolic risk factors. We used computerized data linkage with nationwide registries from 1997 to 2019 to ascertain the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 16 years, 4,458 cases of cirrhosis and 1,392 cases of HCC occurred in the entire cohort, resulting in an incidence rate of 86.1 and 26.8 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The ALD group exhibited the highest incidence rate for cirrhosis and HCC, followed by MetALD, MASLD, and non-SLD groups. The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios for HCC were 1.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.44), 2.91 (95% CI 2.11-4.03), and 2.59 (95% CI 1.93-3.48) for MASLD, MetALD, and ALD, respectively, when compared with non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors. The pattern of the associated risk of cirrhosis was similar to that of HCC (all P value <0.001). The associated risk of cirrhosis for ALD increased to 4.74 (95% CI 4.08-5.52) when using non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors as a reference. DISCUSSION: This study highlights elevated risks of cirrhosis and HCC across various subtypes of SLD compared with non-SLD, emphasizing the importance of behavioral modifications for early prevention.

Chronic Viral Hepatitis B and C Outweigh MASLD in the Associated Risk of Cirrhosis and HCC.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) on the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or C infection and antiviral treatment statuses is not well-known. METHODS: A total of 336,866 adults aged ≥30 years were prospectively enrolled in a health screening program between 1997-2013. MASLD was identified by abdominal ultrasonography and cardiometabolic profiles. Data linkage was performed using 3 nationwide databases-National Health Insurance, Cancer Registry, and Death Certification System-to obtain information on antiviral treatment, vital status, and newly diagnosed cirrhosis and HCC. Follow-up was conducted until December 31, 2019. RESULTS: In the total population, 122,669 (36.4%) had MASLD. Over a mean follow-up of 15 years, 5562 new cases of cirrhosis and 2273 new cases of HCC were diagnosed. Although MASLD significantly increased the cumulative risks of cirrhosis or HCC (P < .0001), the associated risk was more pronounced when comparing CHB or C infection with the presence of MASLD. Stratifying the participants based on their MASLD and CHB or C statuses, hazard ratios (HRadj) with 95% confidence intervals for HCC were 8.81 (7.83-9.92) for non-steatotic liver disease (SLD) with CHB or C, 1.52 (1.32-1.74) for MASLD without CHB or C, and 8.86 (7.76-10.12) for MASLD with CHB or C, compared with non-SLD without CHB or C (all P < .0001). Among CHB or C patients who received antivirals during follow-up, MASLD was associated with increased risks of cirrhosis and HCC, with HRadj of 1.23 (1.01-1.49) and 1.32 (1.05-1.65), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the need to prioritize treatment of chronic viral hepatitis before addressing MASLD.

Persistently high HBsAg levels during HBeAg-seropositive stage predict lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND: High hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) level predicts hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with low viral load. The role of longitudinal HBsAg levels in predicting HCC in HBeAg-positive CHB patients remains unknown. METHOD: HBeAg-positive CHB participants from the REVEAL-HBV cohort with ≥2 HBsAg measurements before HBeAg seroclearance were enrolled. Group-based trajectory modelling identified distinct HBsAg trajectory groups during a median of 11 years of HBeAg-positive status. Cox regression models were applied for investigating independent predictors of HCC and estimating adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 319 patients were enrolled and classified by HBsAg trajectory patterns as (A) persistently high group (n = 72): HBsAg persistently ≥104 IU/mL, and (B) non-stationary group (n = 233): low HBsAg at baseline or declining to <104 IU/mL during the follow-up. Group B had higher proportions of abnormal ALT levels, HBV genotype C and basal core mutation than group A (p < 0.05); age at entry and gender were comparable. The annual incidence of HCC in group A and group B were 0.37% and 1.16%, respectively (p = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, age >40 years (HRadj [95% CI] = 4.11 [2.26-7.48]), genotype C (HRadj [95% CI] = 4.39 [1.96-9.81]) and the non-stationary group (HRadj [95% CI] = 3.50 [1.49-8.21]) were independent predictors of HCC. Basal core promoter mutation was the only risk factor of HCC in the persistently high HBsAg group (HRadj [95% CI] = 32.75 [5.41-198.42]). CONCLUSION: Patients with persistently high HBsAg levels during HBeAg-seropositive stage represent a unique population with low risk of HCC development.

Exposure to PM2.5 Metal Constituents and Liver Cancer Risk in REVEAL-HBV.

BACKGROUND: Ambient particulate matter is classified as a human Class 1 carcinogen, and recent studies found a positive relationship between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and liver cancer. Nevertheless, little is known about which specific metal constituent contributes to the development of liver cancer. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of long-term exposure to metal constituents in PM2.5 with the risk of liver cancer using a Taiwanese cohort study. METHODS: A total of 13,511 Taiwanese participants were recruited from the REVEAL-HBV in 1991-1992. Participants' long-term exposure to eight metal constituents (Ba, Cu, Mn, Sb, Zn, Pb, Ni, and Cd) in PM2.5 was based on ambient measurement in 2002-2006 followed by a land-use regression model for spatial interpolation. We ascertained newly developed liver cancer (ie, hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) through data linkage with the Taiwan Cancer Registry and national health death certification in 1991-2014. A Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to assess the association between exposure to PM2.5 metal component and HCC. RESULTS: We identified 322 newly developed HCC with a median follow-up of 23.1 years. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 Cu was positively associated with a risk of liver cancer. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.25; P = 0.023) with one unit increment on Cu normalized by PM2.5 mass concentration in the logarithmic scale. The PM2.5 Cu-HCC association remained statistically significant with adjustment for co-exposures to other metal constituents in PM2.5. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest PM2.5 containing Cu may attribute to the association of PM2.5 exposure with liver cancer.

Analysis across Taiwan Biobank, Biobank Japan, and UK Biobank identifies hundreds of novel loci for 36 quantitative traits.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified tens of thousands of genetic loci associated with human complex traits. However, the majority of GWASs were conducted in individuals of European ancestries. Failure to capture global genetic diversity has limited genomic discovery and has impeded equitable delivery of genomic knowledge to diverse populations. Here we report findings from 102,900 individuals across 36 human quantitative traits in the Taiwan Biobank (TWB), a major biobank effort that broadens the population diversity of genetic studies in East Asia. We identified 968 novel genetic loci, pinpointed novel causal variants through statistical fine-mapping, compared the genetic architecture across TWB, Biobank Japan, and UK Biobank, and evaluated the utility of cross-phenotype, cross-population polygenic risk scores in disease risk prediction. These results demonstrated the potential to advance discovery through diversifying GWAS populations and provided insights into the common genetic basis of human complex traits in East Asia.

Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Spontaneous Clearance of Hepatitis C Virus and in Noncirrhosis Chronic Hepatitis C Patients With Sustained Virological Response: A Systematic Review.

In a hepatitis C virus (HCV)-controlled human infection model (CHIM), healthy volunteers are inoculated with HCV and then treated. Residual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after viral clearance is an important consideration when evaluating the CHIM. We estimate HCC risk in spontaneously cleared HCV and in noncirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) to HCV treatment in a systematic review and using data from 3 cohorts: German anti-D, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs (VA). For noncirrhosis SVR, the overall HCC rate is 0.33 per 100 patient-years in meta-analysis. HCC rates for the German, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs cohorts are 0, 0.14, and 0.02 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Past hepatitis B virus exposure was not accounted for in the Taiwan cohort, while VA patients were likely tested based on liver disease/risk factors, which may confound HCC outcomes. The German cohort with no HCC after 44 years is most comparable to the CHIM participants. Although it is difficult to precisely estimate HCC risk from an HCV CHIM, the data suggest the risk to be very low or negligible.

The association between Gabapentin or Pregabalin use and the risk of dementia: an analysis of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan.

Objective: Previous studies have shown that gabapentin or pregabalin use is associated with cognitive decline. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the association between gabapentin or pregabalin use and the risk of dementia. Methods: In this retrospective, population-based matched cohort study, all research data were collected from the 2005 Longitudinal Health Insurance Database, which contains data of 2 million people randomly selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan in 2005. The study extracted data from 1 January 2000, to 31 December 2017. Adult patients taking gabapentin or pregabalin were included in the exposure group, and patients not using gabapentin or pregabalin matched to exposure subjects in a 1:5 ratio by propensity scores composed of age, sex and index date were included in the non-exposure group. Results: A total of 206,802 patients were enrolled in the study. Of them, 34,467 gabapentin- or pregabalin-exposure and 172,335 non-exposure patients were used for analysis. The mean follow-up day (±standard deviation) after the index date was 1724.76 (±1282.32) and 1881.45 (±1303.69) in the exposure and non-exposure groups, respectively; the incidence rates of dementia were 980.60 and 605.48 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio of risk of dementia for gabapentin or pregabalin exposure versus the matched non-exposed group was 1.45 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-1.55). The risk of dementia increased with higher cumulative defined daily doses during the follow-up period. Moreover, the stratification analysis revealed that the risk of dementia associated with gabapentin or pregabalin exposure was significant in all age subgroups; however, it was higher in younger patients (age <50) than in the older patients (hazard ratio, 3.16; 95% CI, 2.23-4.47). Conclusion: Patients treated with gabapentin or pregabalin had an increased risk of dementia. Therefore, these drugs should be used with caution, particularly in susceptible individuals.

Impact of fatty liver on long-term outcomes in chronic hepatitis B: a systematic review and matched analysis of individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and fatty liver (FL) often co-exist, but natural history data of this dual condition (CHB-FL) are sparse. Via a systematic review, conventional meta-analysis (MA) and individual patient-level data MA (IPDMA), we compared liver-related outcomes and mortality between CHB-FL and CHB-no FL patients. METHODS: We searched 4 databases from inception to December 2021 and pooled study-level estimates using a random- effects model for conventional MA. For IPDMA, we evaluated outcomes after balancing the two study groups with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) on age, sex, cirrhosis, diabetes, ALT, HBeAg, HBV DNA, and antiviral treatment. RESULTS: We screened 2,157 articles and included 19 eligible studies (17,955 patients: 11,908 CHB-no FL; 6,047 CHB-FL) in conventional MA, which found severe heterogeneity (I2=88-95%) and no significant differences in HCC, cirrhosis, mortality, or HBsAg seroclearance incidence (P=0.27-0.93). IPDMA included 13,262 patients: 8,625 CHB-no FL and 4,637 CHB-FL patients who differed in several characteristics. The IPTW cohort included 6,955 CHB-no FL and 3,346 CHB-FL well-matched patients. CHB-FL patients (vs. CHB-no FL) had significantly lower HCC, cirrhosis, mortality and higher HBsAg seroclearance incidence (all p≤0.002), with consistent results in subgroups. CHB-FL diagnosed by liver biopsy had a higher 10-year cumulative HCC incidence than CHB-FL diagnosed with non-invasive methods (63.6% vs. 4.3%, p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: IPDMA data with well-matched CHB patient groups showed that FL (vs. no FL) was associated with significantly lower HCC, cirrhosis, and mortality risk and higher HBsAg seroclearance probability.

Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction model performance decreases with long-term antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models are derived mainly from pretreatment or early on-treatment parameters. We reassessed the dynamic changes in the performance of 17 HCC models in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) during long-term antiviral therapy (AVT). METHODS: Among 987 CHB patients administered long-term entecavir therapy, 660 patients had 8 years of follow-up data. Model scores were calculated using on-treatment values at 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5 years of AVT to predict threeyear HCC occurrence. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). The original model cutoffs to distinguish different levels of HCC risk were evaluated by the log-rank test. RESULTS: The AUROCs of the 17 HCC models varied from 0.51 to 0.78 when using on-treatment scores from years 2.5 to 5. Models with a cirrhosis variable showed numerically higher AUROCs (pooled at 0.65-0.73 for treated, untreated, or mixed treatment models) than models without (treated or mixed models: 0.61-0.68; untreated models: 0.51-0.59). Stratification into low, intermediate, and high-risk levels using the original cutoff values could no longer reflect the true HCC incidence using scores after 3.5 years of AVT for models without cirrhosis and after 4 years of AVT for models with cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: The performance of existing HCC prediction models, especially models without the cirrhosis variable, decreased in CHB patients on long-term AVT. The optimization of existing models or the development of novel models for better HCC prediction during long-term AVT is warranted.

Rapid Decline Rather Than Absolute Level of HBsAg Predicts Its Seroclearance in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients From Taiwanese Communities.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance leads to favorable outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B. HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL with HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year have been reportedly predictive of HBsAg loss. This study aimed to use the REVEAL-hepatitis B virus cohort to validate and simplify this prediction rule and verify whether the simplified algorithm can be used among various clinical subgroups. METHOD: We analyzed 707 patients with untreated chronic hepatitis B who had 3 or more HBsAg measurements within 5 years before HBsAg seroclearance or last visit, greater than 1 year apart from one another. Rapid HBsAg decline was defined as HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year or >1 log 10 IU/mL in 2 years. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were compared to assess the predictability of HBsAg seroclearance. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 41 of the 707 patients cleared serum HBsAg. HBsAg levels at all measurements were lower ( P < 0.0001) and HBsAg decline was greater ( P < 0.0001) in patients with seroclearance compared with non-seroclearance patients. The predictive accuracy of predicting 1-year HBsAg loss using only the rapid decline algorithm (sensitivity = 0.4412, specificity = 0.9792, positive predictive value = 0.5172, negative predictive value = 0.972) was the same as the model combining rapid HBsAg decline and HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL. The simplified algorithm including only the rapid decline performed similarly among various levels of HBsAg, hepatitis B virus DNA, and alanine aminotransferase and was independent of inactive carrier state. DISCUSSION: HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL/yr was a practical predictor of HBsAg seroclearance within 1 year in our community-based untreated cohort.

Ganglioside-focused Glycan Array Reveals Abnormal Anti-GD1b Auto-antibody in Plasma of Preclinical Huntington's Disease.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive and devastating neurodegenerative disease marked by inheritable CAG nucleotide expansion. For offspring of HD patients carrying abnormal CAG expansion, biomarkers that predict disease onset are crucially important but still lacking. Alteration of brain ganglioside patterns has been observed in the pathology of patients carrying HD. Here, by using a novel and sensitive ganglioside-focused glycan array, we examined the potential of anti-glycan auto-antibodies for HD. In this study, we collected plasma from 97 participants including 42 control (NC), 16 pre-manifest HD (pre-HD), and 39 HD cases and measured the anti-glycan auto-antibodies by a novel ganglioside-focused glycan array. The association between plasma anti-glycan auto-antibodies and disease progression was analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The disease-predictive capacity of anti-glycan auto-antibodies was further investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. We found that anti-glycan auto-antibodies were generally higher in the pre-HD group when compared to the NC and HD groups. Specifically, anti-GD1b auto-antibody demonstrated the potential for distinguishing between pre-HD and control groups. Moreover, in combination with age and the number of CAG repeat, the level of anti-GD1b antibody showed excellent predictability with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.95 to discriminate between pre-HD carriers and HD patients. With glycan array technology, this study demonstrated abnormal auto-antibody responses that showed temporal changes from pre-HD to HD.

Biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in the REVEAL-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohort studies.

Gut barrier dysfunction can result in the liver being exposed to an elevated level of gut-derived bacterial products via portal circulation. Growing evidence suggests that systemic exposure to these bacterial products promotes liver diseases including hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prospective studies have not examined the association between biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and HCC risk in a population of hepatitis B or C viral (HBV/HCV) carriers. We investigated whether prediagnostic, circulating biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction were associated with HCC risk, using the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohorts from Taiwan. REVEAL-HBV included 185 cases and 161 matched controls, and REVEAL-HCV 96 cases and 96 matched controls. The biomarkers quantitated were immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG, and IgM against lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, soluble CD14 (an LPS coreceptor), and LPS-binding protein (LBP). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarker levels and HCC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. A doubling of the circulating levels of antiflagellin IgA or LBP was associated with a 76% to 93% increased risk of HBV-related HCC (OR per one unit change in log2 antiflagellin IgA = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.06-2.93; OR for LBP = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.10-3.38). None of the other markers were associated with an increased risk of HBV-related or HCV-related HCC. Results were similar when cases diagnosed in the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Our findings contribute to understanding the interplay of gut barrier dysfunction and primary liver cancer etiology.

HBV genotype-dependent association of HLA variants with the serodecline of HBsAg in chronic hepatitis B patients.

Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is regarded as the functional cure for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The relationship between human leukocyte antigen (HLA) variants, hepatitis B virus genotype, and longitudinal HBsAg serodecline remains to be explored. A total of 1735 HBeAg-seronegative CHB patients with genotype B or C infection of the community-based REVEAL-HBV cohort were genotyped for rs1710 (HLA-G) and rs2770 (HLA-B) using TaqMan assay. Cox proportional hazard regression and generalized linear mixed models were used to analyze the association of HLA genetic variants with the rate of HBsAg seroclearance and longitudinal HBsAg serodecline. Rs1710 G allele was differentially associated with the HBsAg seroclearance in genotype B [aRR (95% CI) = 0.74 (0.56-0.98)] and genotype C [aRR (95%CI) = 1.43 (1.08-1.88)] infection. Rs2770 G allele was associated with HBsAg seroclearance only in genotype B infection [aRR (95% CI) = 0.69 (0.52-0.91)]. The alleles associated with HBsAg seroclearance were significant predictors for the serodecline of HBsAg levels in an HBV genotype-dependent manner (genotype B infection: rs1710, P = 0.013; rs2770, P = 0.0081; genotype C infection: rs1710, P = 0.0452). Our results suggest both spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance and serodecline are modified by the interaction between HLA variants and HBV genotype.

Serum HBcrAg and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Taiwanese Population Seronegative for HBsAg and Anti-HCV.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a surrogate seromarker of intrahepatic hepatitis B virus covalently closed circular DNA quantity and activity and a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B patients. We assess association between HBcrAg and HCC in individuals seronegative for hepatitis B surface antigen and anti-hepatitis C virus (NBNC) in Taiwan. METHODS: A total of 129 newly developed HCC cases and 520 frequency-matched non-HCC controls were drawn from the REVEAL-NBNC cohort. Serum HBcrAg and other risk factors measured at recruitment were compared between cases and controls. Regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The proportion of baseline HBcrAg positivity (≥1000 U/mL) was significantly higher in HCC cases than in controls (12.4% vs 1.4%, P < .001). In multivariate analysis, HBcrAg positivity was associated with significantly higher risk of HCC (adjusted OR [95% CI]: 9.3 [3.3-26.4]; P < .001]. The HCC population attributable to HBcrAg positivity was 11.1% (95% CI: 9.7%-12.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Seropositivity of HBcrAg might identify a subset of the NBNC population at higher risk of HCC in hepatitis B virus endemic areas.

Association between Immunologic Markers and Cirrhosis in Individuals from a Prospective Chronic Hepatitis C Cohort.

Background: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can affect immune response and inflammatory pathways, leading to severe liver diseases such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: In a prospective cohort of chronically HCV-infected individuals, we sampled 68 individuals who developed cirrhosis, 91 controls who did not develop cirrhosis, and 94 individuals who developed HCC. Unconditional odds ratios (ORs) from polytomous logistic regression models and canonical discriminant analyses (CDAs) were used to compare categorical (C) baseline plasma levels for 102 markers in individuals who developed cirrhosis vs. controls and those who developed HCC vs. cirrhosis. Leave-one-out cross validation was used to produce receiver operating characteristic curves to assess predictive ability of markers. Lastly, biological pathways were assessed in association with cirrhotic development compared to controls. Results: After multivariable adjustment, DEFA-1 (OR: C2v.C1 = 7.73; p < 0.0001), ITGAM (OR: C2v.C1 = 4.03; p = 0.0002), SCF (OR: C4v.C1 = 0.19; p-trend = 0.0001), and CCL11 (OR: C4v.C1 = 0.31; p-trend= 0.002) were all associated with development of cirrhosis compared to controls; these markers, together with clinical/demographics variables, improved prediction of cirrhosis from 55.7% (in clinical/demographic-only model) to 74.9% accuracy. A twelve-marker model based on CDA results further increased prediction of cirrhosis to 88.0%. While six biological pathways were found to be associated with cirrhosis, cell adhesion was the only pathway associated with cirrhosis after Bonferroni correction. In contrast to cirrhosis, DEFA-1 and ITGAM levels were inversely associated with HCC risk. Conclusions: Pending validation, these findings highlight the important role of immunological markers in predicting HCV-related cirrhosis even 11 years post-enrollment.

Comparative Performance of 14 HCC Prediction Models in CHB: A Dynamic Validation at Serial On-Treatment Timepoints.

INTRODUCTION: To assess comparative performance of 14 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients using on-treatment values at different timepoints. METHODS: Based on a nationwide prospective cohort of 986 treatment-naive CHB patients undergoing entecavir therapy with every 26-week follow-up, 14 HCC risk scores were calculated using on-treatment values at week 26, 52, 78, and 104, respectively. Model performance predicting 3-year HCC was assessed using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration index. Model cutoffs were validated through common diagnostic accuracy measures. RESULTS: During median 4.7-year follow-up, 56 (7.5%) developed HCC. Discrimination using on-treatment values within first 2 years was generally acceptable for most models (AUCs ranging from 0.68 to 0.81), except for REACH-B, NGM-HCC, and PAGE-B, although AUCs slightly decreased from week 26 to 104. Of these, REAL-B, CAMD, GAG-HCC, AASL-HCC, LSM-HCC, mPAGE-B, and mREACH-BII showed highest discrimination with AUCs ranging from 0.76 to 0.81, 0.72 to 0.76, 0.70 to 0.76, and 0.71 to 0.74 when reassessment at week 26, 52, 78, and 104, respectively. With reassessment within first 2 years, both REAL-B and CAMD calibrated well (Brier score ranging from 0.037 to 0.052). Of 9 models reporting cutoffs, REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and mPAGE-B using on-treatment values could identify 30%-40% of patients as low risk with minimal HCC incidence in the low-risk group (0.40% [REAL-B]-1.56% [mPAGE-B]). DISCUSSION: In this undergoing antiviral treatment CHB cohort, most HCC prediction models performed well even using on-treatment values during first 2 years, particularly REAL-B, AASL-HCC, CAMD, and mPAGE-B model.

A switch from tenofovir to entecavir prior to hepatitis B treatment cessation is associated with a reduced risk of off-therapy relapse: An observational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In HBeAg negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, clinical relapse (CR) occurs more frequently, much earlier and often more severely after stopping tenofovir (TDF) and other nucleos(t)ide analogues (Nucs) than after stopping entecavir (ETV). It is unknown whether off-Nuc hepatitis flare can be alleviated by switching from one Nuc to another. METHODS: HBeAg-negative CHB patients who had stopped Nuc according to the APASL stopping rule and had been followed-up for > 48 weeks after Nuc cessation were recruited. Patients were classified as four groups: ETV monotherapy (mono-ETV), TDF monotherapy (mono-TDF), switched to ETV (switch-ETV), and switched to TDF (switch-TDF). Both switch groups had switched to the replacement Nuc > 12 weeks prior to end of therapy. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to minimize confounders among groups. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risks factors for off-Nuc CR and flares. RESULTS: A total of 1309 patients (1022 mono-ETV, 219 mono-TDF, 40 switch-ETV and 28 switch-TDF) were enrolled. The median time to CR was 39, 13, 38 and 14 weeks in mono-ETV, mono-TDF, switch-ETV and switch-TDF respectively (P < 0.001). After PSM, the mono-ETV (adjusted HR: 0.39, P < 0.001) and switch-ETV patients (adjusted HR: 0.41, P = 0.003) had both significantly later occurrence and lower rates of CR and flare. CONCLUSION: In summary, the incidence and timing of CR was determined by ETV or TDF in the last 3 months prior to end of treatment. Patients treated with non-ETV-Nuc switched to ETV > 12 weeks before end of the original Nuc therapy may reduce/defer CR.